Heart failure (HF) is a growing concern in Japan due to population aging, yet most predictive models have been derived from Western cohorts. A recent study from the Suita cohort, published in BMC Cardiovascular Disorders, developed a risk score based on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels to better predict HF risk in Japanese adults.

The study included 2,809 adults aged over 40 years who had biennial follow-ups with BNP measurements. The outcome of interest was the development of BNP levels ≥100 pg/mL, a threshold considered indicative of HF requiring treatment. Over a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 339 participants (12.1%) reached this threshold.

Cox regression models identified several independent risk factors for BNP elevation: older age, heavy smoking, former and heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, reduced kidney function (eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m²), history of cardiovascular disease, presence of cardiac murmurs, arrhythmia, including atrial fibrillation, and left ventricular hypertrophy, with each variable assigned weighted scores.

The risk prediction model showed good discriminatory ability (C-statistic 0.750) and calibration (p = 0.150). These findings emphasize the potential of BNP-based risk assessment to support early identification of individuals at risk for HF. The study further underscores the importance of lifestyle modification and routine health check-ups in vulnerable groups.