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Prolongation of the QT interval is strongly linked to higher short-term mortality, particularly in intensive care settings where such abnormalities are common. This study, presented at ESC Congress 2025, developed a deep learning model to predict mortality risk using the 12-lead electrocardiogram in patients with QTc prolongation. 

Data from the MIMIC-IV database were analysed, focusing on ECGs with QTc ≥440 ms. Patients who died within 1, 3, or 12 months after the ECG were labelled as positive cases, with balanced sampling to ensure comparability. The model was trained using five-fold cross-validation and tested on a held-out dataset.

Restricted cubic spline analysis confirmed a U-shaped relationship between QTc interval and mortality risk, with hazard ratios rising above 1 when QTc exceeded 446.3 ms. The model achieved AUROCs of 0.852, 0.834, and 0.815 for 1-, 3-, and 12-month mortality predictions, respectively. 

Compared to SAPS-II, the model improved risk classification as indicated by significant net reclassification and integrated discrimination indices. These findings suggest that deep learning analysis of ECGs can effectively identify ICU patients at high risk of short-term mortality, offering a promising tool for early intervention and clinical prioritization.

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Key highlights
  • QT intervals of 440 milliseconds or more are strongly associated with higher short-term mortality in intensive care patients.
  • A deep learning model using 12-lead electrocardiograms predicted mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months with high accuracy (AUROC 0.815–0.852).
  • The model outperformed the SAPS-II scoring system, showing improved risk reclassification and discrimination.
Source

Wang CY, Wang YF, Zhang P, et al. Development of a short-term mortality risk prediction model for patients with QTc prolongation based on 12-lead electrocardiogram. Presented at: ESC Congress 2025; August 29-September 1, 2025;  London, United Kingdom. https://esc365.escardio.org/presentation/303459 

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Deep Learning Model Predicts Short-Term Mortality in ICU Patients With Prolonged QT Intervals
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Artificial intelligence using 12-lead electrocardiograms identifies high-risk ICU patients with prolonged QT intervals, outperforming conventional risk scores.

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