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Early detection of aortic stenosis remains a major challenge, with many patients presenting late in the disease course. Findings presented at the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Congress 2025 suggest that longitudinal electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis using an artificial intelligence (AI) model could offer a scalable solution.

An analysis of 7,860 ECGs from 2,040 transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) recipients showed that the AI model (AK-AVS) identified high-risk signals up to 4.5 years prior to the procedure. More than 90% of patients exceeded a risk threshold in the months before TAVR.

Three ECG progression patterns—Persistently High, Accelerated Progression, and Stable Low—were identified through unsupervised clustering, with the first two associated with significantly higher one-year mortality. Integration of trajectory data improved predictive accuracy beyond EuroSCOREII and STS risk scores.

These results highlight the potential role of AI-driven ECG analysis as a cost-effective, widely accessible tool for early detection of aortic stenosis and for enhanced risk stratification.

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Key highlights
  • Artificial intelligence applied to electrocardiograms detected aortic stenosis up to 4.5 years before valve replacement.
  • Three distinct ECG trajectories—Persistently High, Accelerated Progression, and Stable Low—were linked to differences in mortality risk.
  • Incorporating ECG trajectory data improved the predictive accuracy of traditional surgical risk scores.
Source

Segar M, Lambeth JK, Postalikian A, et al. Longitudinal ECG trajectories identify high-risk aortic stenosis phenotypes years prior to TAVR. Presented at: ESC Congress 2025; August 29-September 1, 2025; London, United Kingdom. https://esc365.escardio.org/presentation/301460 

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ECG-Based AI Model Detects Aortic Stenosis Years Before Valve Replacement
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ESC 2025 study shows longitudinal ECG analysis predicts mortality and supports early screening for aortic stenosis.
 

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