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A new meta-analysis of 75 studies, encompassing 58 prediction models, has identified promising tools for assessing the risk of atrial fibrillation following a stroke. The review evaluated multivariable prediction models designed to guide targeted monitoring. The aim was to optimize stroke care while avoiding unnecessary testing. The findings were reported in Heart Rhythm. 

Among the models analyzed, three demonstrated excellent statistical performance: SAFE (C statistic 0.856), SURF (0.815), and iPAB (0.888). However, when studies with a high risk of bias were excluded, only the SAFE model maintained adequate discrimination. 

None of the models consistently showed strong predictive accuracy when tested in external validation cohorts or in studies with more than 100 AF events. 

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Key highlights
  • Identifying atrial fibrillation after stroke is crucial for preventing recurrent events but requires cost-effective monitoring strategies.
  • Out of 58 models reviewed, SAFE, SURF, and iPAB showed excellent predictive performance in pooled analyses.
  • SAFE remained the most reliable when studies with a high risk of bias were excluded.
  • No models demonstrated excellent accuracy in large external validation studies.
Source

Helbitz A, Haris M, Younsi T, et al. Prediction of atrial fibrillation after a stroke event: A systematic review with meta-analysis. Heart Rhythm. 2025;22(7):1637-1645. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrthm.2025.01.026 

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SAFE, SURF, and iPAB models effectively predict atrial fibrillation after stroke. 

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