A recent study published in Nutrition and Metabolism reported an association of body fat percentage (BF%) with diabetes risk. The study determined the association of body fat with diabetes risk in the Chinese population.
Researchers selected 211,833 Chinese adults and conducted a retrospective cohort study in the Chinese population during the period of 2010 to 2016. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the relation between baseline BF% and diabetes risk was analyzed. To examine the nonlinear relationship between BF% and diabetes onset, the cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting were used. To validate the robustness of findings, sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed.
It was found that a 1% increase in BF% is associated with a 1.04-fold higher risk of diabetes. Across BF% quartiles (Q1 to Q4), higher risk was found in Q4 compared to Q1. A nonlinear association between BF% and diabetes risk was also found at a critical inflection point of 25.09%. The HR was 1.17 below this point and 1.02 above this point.
• A retrospective cohort study of 211,833 Chinese adults revealed that each 1% increase in body fat percentage (BF%) raises diabetes risk by 1.04 times.
• A nonlinear relationship was reported, with a critical BF% inflection point at 25.09%; risk increased more steeply below this threshold (HR 1.17) than above it (HR 1.02).
• Results remained robust across sensitivity and subgroup analyses, reinforcing the predictive value of BF% in diabetes risk assessment.
Pan W, Cai S, Huang Z and Yu K (2025) Elevated body fat percentage is linked to increased risk of diabetes: a longitudinal retrospective cohort study based on Chinese adults. Front. Nutr. 12:1510210. Doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1510210
A study links rising body fat percentage to increased diabetes risk, with strongest effects observed below a 25% body fat threshold.