A study published in the BMC Endocrine Disorders has found that arterial stiffness, measured by estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), may predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) early in young, non-obese adults.
Using data from the NAGALA study, researchers followed 9,543 Japanese adults aged 18–49 years who were non-obese and free of diabetes at baseline. Over a median follow-up period of 6.3 years, 110 participants developed T2DM. Patients with elevated ePWV had a significantly higher risk of developing T2DM (HR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.05–1.75; P = 0.018), even after adjusting for factors such as age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol use, smoking status, and metabolic markers.
The inclusion of ePWV in a prediction model (along with sex, BMI, and diastolic blood pressure) enhanced the ability of the model to forecast 10-year T2DM risk. The area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.679 to 0.734 (P = 0.016). Subgroup analyses showed the robustness of the association across sexes and lifestyle factors.
• Elevated ePWV significantly increases type 2 diabetes risk in non-obese adults aged 18–49.
• ePWV remained an independent predictor even after adjusting for lifestyle and metabolic factors.
• Including ePWV in risk models improved diabetes prediction accuracy (AUC: 0.734 vs. 0.679).
• Association was consistent across sex, age, smoking, and alcohol use subgroups.
• Study highlights ePWV as a promising early detection tool for diabetes in lean populations.
Zhang C, Chen L, Liu R. Elevated estimated pulse wave velocity and the risk of type 2 diabetes in non-obese young adults: a longitudinal cohort study. BMC Endocr Disord. 2025;25(1):139. Published 2025 Jun 6. doi:10.1186/s12902-025-01967-4
Arterial stiffness, measured by estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), may predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) early in young, non-obese adults.