Researchers analyzing the VITAL-AF trial found that one-time atrial fibrillation (AF) screening with a single-lead ECG during primary care visits was most effective in older adults who were predicted to have either a high screening effect or a high AF risk. The study was reported in Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes. 

The trial included about 30,000 adults aged 65 years and older. In the highest quartile of predicted screening effects, AF diagnoses were significantly higher with screening compared to usual care (4.00 vs. 2.88 per 100 person-years). 

In the highest quartile of predicted AF risk, screening led to more AF diagnoses (5.55 vs. 4.23 per 100 person-years). The correlation between predicted effect and risk was weak, meaning these groups only partially overlapped.