Triglyceride-derived metabolic markers have been proposed as indirect indicators of insulin resistance and potential predictors of vascular risk. A prospective cohort study published in Diabetic Medicine evaluated whether these indices predict microvascular and macrovascular complications or mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

The study followed 667 adults with T2DM for a median of 10.6 years. Baseline and first-year triglyceride-derived parameters were calculated, including the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), and TyG multiplied by body mass index (TyG*BMI). Multivariable Cox regression models assessed associations with cardiovascular outcomes, microvascular complications, and mortality.

During follow-up, 212 total cardiovascular events (172 major), 263 all-cause deaths, 124 new cases of microalbuminuria, 98 advanced renal deteriorations, 154 retinopathy events, and 173 peripheral neuropathy events were recorded. None of the triglyceride-derived parameters, analyzed as continuous or tertile-based variables, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any adverse outcome. First-year TyG showed a modest association with retinopathy development or progression (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.53 per 1-SD increase), but this association attenuated after adjustment for LDL cholesterol (HR 1.16; 95% CI 0.92-1.45).

These findings indicate that triglyceride-derived metabolic indices did not demonstrate predictive value for vascular complications or mortality in this non-Asian cohort with T2DM.