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Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of morbidity in type 1 diabetes, yet risk stratification in younger and diverse populations remains challenging. Presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes 2025, this study compared two type 1 diabetes-specific cardiovascular risk models—the Steno Type 1 Risk Engine (ST1RE) and the Scottish-Swedish model—in 435 adults without prior cardiovascular disease. 

Participants were predominantly young (median age 25 years, 86% under 40) and followed for a median of 9.2 years. The Scottish-Swedish model classified 75% as low risk, 13% moderate, and 12% high risk, while ST1RE classified 84% as low, 11% moderate, and 5% high risk. Agreement between models was moderate (Cohen’s κ = 0.550). Over follow-up, 24 participants (5.5%) experienced cardiovascular events. 

Both models successfully stratified individuals with significantly higher event rates in moderate- and high-risk groups. Discriminative ability was excellent, with C-statistics of 0.916 for the Scottish-Swedish model and comparable performance for ST1RE. These results highlight the value of type 1 diabetes-specific tools to guide primary prevention and optimize early intervention strategies in young and diverse populations.

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Key highlights
  • In 435 adults in young and ethnically heterogeneous pots with type 1 diabetes, both the Steno Type 1 Risk Engine (ST1RE) and Scottish-Swedish model demonstrated strong predictive ability for 10-year cardiovascular events.
  • Agreement between the two models was moderate, with Cohen’s kappa of 0.55, highlighting comparable risk stratification despite differing classification thresholds.
  • Findings support the use of T1D-specific cardiovascular risk tools to guide early preventive intervention populations.
Source

Paliares IC, Dualib PM, Aroucha PMT, et al. Cardiovascular risk stratification in an ethnically mixed type 1 diabetes population: comparison of the Steno Type 1 Risk Engine and Scottish-Swedish model. Presented at: 61st EASD Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes; September 15-19, 2025; Vienna, Austria. Diabetologia. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00125-025-06497-1#Sec34 

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Two Type 1 Diabetes-Specific Models Show Strong Agreement in Predicting 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk
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Steno Type 1 Risk Engine and Scottish-Swedish models both effectively identify high-risk individuals in a predominantly young, diverse cohort
 

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